Excel Unleashed: Master Advanced Analytics, Conquer Errors, & Code Your Way to Spreadsheet Control
- Sharon Rajendra Manmothe
- 7 hours ago
- 16 min read
Table of Contents
The Alarming Reality: The Multi-Billion Dollar Cost of Spreadsheet Errors
Quantifying the Risk: How Common Are Errors?
Real-World Disasters: "London Whale" and Austerity Measures
Estimated Industrial Impact
Why Spreadsheets Go Wrong: Unmasking the Root Causes of Vulnerability
The "Ease of Creation" Paradox: Neglected Software Engineering
The Perils of "Copy and Paste"
The Danger of "Value-Domain Fixes" (Overwriting Formulas)
Hidden Complexity: The Maze of Cell References
The Scourge of Poor Documentation and Maintenance
Modern Excel's Arsenal: Functional Programming for Robustness and Clarity
Dynamic Arrays (2018): Revolutionizing Array Calculations
Practical Excel Example: Dynamic Sums with BYROW
The LET Function: Enhancing Readability and Efficiency
Practical Excel Example: Clearer Conditional Logic
The LAMBDA Function: Building Reusable User-Defined Functions
Practical Excel Example: Effortless Running Totals with SCAN
LAMBDA Helper Functions: Scaling Functional Power
Array Shaping Functions: Mastering Data Presentation and Calculation
Structured Spreadsheet Design Principles: Building for Analysis and Accuracy
"Design for Analysis": A Proactive Approach
Single Point of Input Entry
The Indispensable "Control Panel"
Recording the Base Case and Tracking Changes
Preliminaries: Accuracy, Protection, and Master Copies
Automated Tools for Spreadsheet Auditing and Error Detection: The Digital Detectives
The Limitations of Manual Audits
ExceLint: The Static Analysis Powerhouse
How ExceLint Works: Reference Vectors and Fingerprint Regions
Visualizing Errors: Global View and Guided Audit
Real-World Success: The Reinhart-Rogoff Error
General Auditing Methodologies: Equivalence Classes
Leveraging Excel's Built-in Statistical Power (with Critical Awareness)
The Analysis ToolPak: A Powerful, Yet Imperfect, Ally
Descriptive Statistics, Correlation, and Regression
Hypothesis Testing, ANOVA, and Chi-Square
Acknowledging the ToolPak's Limitations
Beyond Excel: When to Graduate to Professional Statistical Software
Conclusion: Regaining Control in the Era of Complex Spreadsheets
1. The Alarming Reality: The Multi-Billion Dollar Cost of Spreadsheet Errors
Spreadsheets are undeniably powerful. With 750 million users of Microsoft Excel alone, it stands as a testament to its effectiveness as an end-user programming tool, fostering the creation of millions of spreadsheets annually. From simple personal budgets to complex financial models and scientific simulations, Excel is pervasive across government, scientific, and financial sectors. However, this ubiquity comes with a significant, often underestimated, downside: errors are alarmingly common in spreadsheets.
Quantifying the Risk: How Common Are Errors?
Studies have consistently shown that up to 94% or even more than 95% of spreadsheets contain at least one error. These aren't just minor calculation discrepancies; they are often formula errors that can propagate, remain undetected, and have devastating consequences. The ease of creation, often without extensive IT training, paradoxically makes them prone to errors, as users tend to neglect critical tasks like analysis, documentation, and in-depth testing.
Real-World Disasters: "London Whale" and Austerity Measures
The history of finance and policy is peppered with examples of spreadsheet errors leading to monumental losses and flawed decisions.
The "London Whale" Incident (2012): J.P. Morgan Chase experienced approximately a $2 billion USD loss, partly attributed to a spreadsheet programming error. This served as a stark reminder of the high stakes involved in complex financial instruments managed through spreadsheets.
The Austerity Debate (Post-2008 Financial Crisis): A Harvard economic analysis, co-authored by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, was used to justify austerity measures for Greece following the 2008 financial crisis. This influential analysis was based on a single, large spreadsheet. Later, it was discovered to contain numerous errors; once these errors were corrected, the analysis's original conclusions were reversed, profoundly demonstrating how a spreadsheet mistake can directly influence national and international policy.
These infamous cases underscore the critical need for improving data accuracy in large spreadsheets and implementing robust Microsoft Excel error prevention strategies.
Estimated Industrial Impact
The financial toll of these errors isn't limited to headline-grabbing incidents. In industrial contexts, even without public scrutiny, interviewees have estimated the potential damage of a single spreadsheet error to be over $1,000,000 USD. This highlights that organizations, regardless of size, face substantial, quantifiable risks from inadequately managed spreadsheets.
2. Why Spreadsheets Go Wrong: Unmasking the Root Causes of Vulnerability
To effectively prevent errors, we must first understand their origins. The sources identify several key factors that contribute to the high error rates in spreadsheets.
The "Ease of Creation" Paradox: Neglected Software Engineering
The very accessibility of spreadsheets, allowing complex models to be built without a great deal of IT-training, is a primary source of errors. This ease means users often treat spreadsheets as informal, "write-and-throw-away" tools, even when they evolve into huge, strategically important, long-living applications that undergo regular updates. Consequently, users frequently neglect important tasks such as analysis, documentation, and in-depth testing, seeing no direct relation between these "software engineering" practices and the immediate success of their spreadsheet. This informal development contrasts sharply with the recognized importance of many spreadsheets; over 50% of 400 spreadsheets analyzed in one study were considered "very important" to their organizations.
The Perils of "Copy and Paste"
The ubiquitous "copy and paste" mechanism, while convenient, is a significant common Excel formula error source. Spreadsheets are often created by defining a formula and then copying it to many other cells where similar functionality is expected. This practice introduces several dangerous side effects:
Error Replication: If the original copied formula is erroneous, the error is replicated throughout all its copies.
Loss of Origin: Once copied, the duplicated cells "forget from where they originated," making it difficult to trace the source of an error.
Inconsistent Corrections: If an error is detected and corrected in one place, all other copies of that formula remain erroneous. This makes reducing spreadsheet risk in finance and other sectors a continuous battle.
The Danger of "Value-Domain Fixes" (Overwriting Formulas)
A particularly insidious error source is how users often approach error correction. Instead of debugging the underlying formula, users tend to check spreadsheets on a numerical level (the "value domain"). When a result looks wrong, they may find debugging too time-consuming and simply overwrite the formula with a constant value to make the current sheet appear correct. This "pseudo-corrective act" introduces a new, latent error, as future changes to the spreadsheet's inputs will not be reflected in that manually overwritten cell, leading to "incorrect sheets in future instantiations". This practice fundamentally misunderstands the spreadsheet as a "model domain" (or "program domain") of interconnected formulas.
Hidden Complexity: The Maze of Cell References
Despite their apparent simplicity, the interplay of absolute and relative cell references can rapidly lead to a high degree of complexity within spreadsheets, a fact many users are unaware of. Unlike the "principle of locality" in conventional software, any cell anywhere on a spreadsheet can freely access the value of another cell. This means that an error in one arbitrary cell can potentially influence one or more results anywhere else on the spreadsheet, irrespective of their "distance". This propagation makes fault identification extremely challenging, as the effect of an error might manifest far from its origin.
The Scourge of Poor Documentation and Maintenance
Strategically important, "long-living" spreadsheets inevitably require ongoing adjustments to keep up with evolving requirements, much like conventional software. However, a persistent lack of documentation makes it incredibly difficult for maintainers, especially if they are not the original authors, to understand the spreadsheet's conceptual model. Without this understanding, maintenance is based on assumptions, which blurs the initial model and causes the spreadsheet to "age" rapidly. This absence of a methodical approach, thorough testing, and sufficient documentation during development and maintenance cycles promotes the introduction and propagation of errors.
3. Modern Excel's Arsenal: Functional Programming for Robustness and Clarity
A significant shift in Excel's capabilities since 2018 offers powerful tools to combat these error sources, moving towards a more structured, programming-like approach. These innovations make building reliable Excel models more achievable.
Dynamic Arrays (2018): Revolutionizing Array Calculations
Before 2018, an Excel cell was limited to a single value. The introduction of Dynamic Arrays dramatically changed this, allowing a single cell formula to output an entire array of results into a "spill range". This is a game-changer for improving data accuracy in large Excel files because the size of the output array is determined solely by the formula itself, not by manual dragging or copying by the user. This eliminates a significant source of errors like "formula copied too far". New functions like SORT and FILTER also leverage dynamic arrays to bring powerful, automatic data manipulation.
Practical Excel Example: Dynamic Sums with BYROW Instead of manually copying a SUM formula down a column for each row in a dynamic table, which is prone to error if the table size changes, you can use BYROW with a LAMBDA function. = BYROW(return#, LAMBDA(x, SUM(x))) Here, return# refers to a spilled range of investment returns. This single formula dynamically calculates the sum for each row, ensuring consistency and adaptability to changing data.
The LET Function: Enhancing Readability and Efficiency
The LET function allows users to define locally-scoped named variables within a formula. This is crucial for understanding common Excel formula errors and improving spreadsheet comprehension, as it transforms complex, nested formulas into something resembling natural language, rather than "encrypted ciphers". Variables defined with LET are also evaluated only once, even if used multiple times within the formula, potentially offering performance benefits.
Practical Excel Example: Clearer Conditional Logic Consider a complex FILTER and IF combination. Without LET, it might look like: =IF(FILTER(C5:C15,C5:C15=C3)<>"",FILTER(C5:C15,C5:C15=C3),"-") With LET, it becomes significantly more readable and maintainable: = LET( criterion, C5:C15=C3, selected, FILTER(D5:D15, criterion), IF(selected<>"", selected, "-") ) This vertical layout, often enhanced with Alt+Enter for line breaks, emphasizes the code-like nature of the formula, making it much easier to audit and debug.
The LAMBDA Function: Building Reusable User-Defined Functions
Perhaps the most profound recent change, the LAMBDA function enables the creation of user-defined functions (UDFs) directly within Excel, without needing VBA or other add-ins. This capability transforms Excel into a more functional programming environment, allowing complex logic to be encapsulated and reused, which is fundamental for functional programming in Excel for error reduction. User-defined Lambda functions can be named, expressing their purpose while hiding the intricate details of their calculation, facilitating refactoring without introducing new errors.
Practical Excel Example: Effortless Running Totals with SCAN A common "corkscrew" calculation, like running totals for cash flows, traditionally posed challenges due to circular references in dynamic arrays. SCAN, a LAMBDA helper function, along with a simple LAMBDA for addition, provides an elegant solution: = SCAN(0, Revenue-COGS, Addλ) where Addλ is defined as = LAMBDA(x, y, x + y). Here, SCAN iteratively applies Addλ to accumulate values, providing a clear and error-resistant way to calculate running totals.
LAMBDA Helper Functions: Scaling Functional Power
Complementing LAMBDA itself are powerful helper functions like MAP, BYROW, BYCOL, SCAN, REDUCE, and MAKEARRAY. These functions elegantly handle array operations by partitioning an array parameter, feeding each part to a LAMBDA function, and then reassembling the results. They solve problems that previously required complex recursion or error-prone manual steps, enabling a more straightforward syntax for sophisticated calculations.
Array Shaping Functions: Mastering Data Presentation and Calculation
The latest additions, array shaping functions like DROP, VSTACK, and WRAPROWS, provide greater control over how dynamic array results are laid out. While traditional single-cell approaches offered complete layout flexibility, dynamic arrays are more constrained. These functions allow developers to profile output within the presentation layer and play a key role in the calculation process itself, ensuring data is presented clearly and correctly.
Practical Excel Example: Complex Output Layout with VSTACK and DROP To present escalated values, investment totals, and blank rows for spacing, a complex layout can be managed with LET and VSTACK: = LET( escalatedValue, DROP(value#, -1) * escalation, investmentTotal, BYCOL(escalatedValue, Sumλ), blankRow, {"",""}, VSTACK( blankRow, escalatedValue, blankRow, investmentTotal ) ) This example demonstrates how to combine calculated arrays with static elements and blank spaces to create a well-formatted, dynamic output.
These modern Excel functionalities, enabling a more methodical and functional programming approach, are vital for enhancing spreadsheet quality and reliability and minimizing the likelihood of future multi-billion dollar errors.
4. Structured Spreadsheet Design Principles: Building for Analysis and Accuracy
Beyond specific functions, a structured design approach is crucial for best practices for spreadsheet error detection and overall reliability. This shifts the focus from merely getting a number to ensuring the integrity and auditability of the model itself.
"Design for Analysis": A Proactive Approach
When a spreadsheet is intended for analysis, it must be designed to facilitate the efficient and accurate execution of analytical techniques. This involves a conscious effort to structure the model in a way that minimizes opportunities for error and maximizes clarity for future users or auditors.
Single Point of Input Entry
A fundamental principle is that all inputs should be entered once in a single cell and then referenced as needed. Scattering inputs throughout a spreadsheet makes them difficult to track, modify, and verify. Consolidating inputs into a dedicated module or set of modules, and then "echoing" them to where they are needed, vastly improves spreadsheet risk management. Separating data (values outside control) from decision variables (values that can be controlled) into distinct sub-modules further enhances clarity.
The Indispensable "Control Panel"
For large or complex models, analysts should create a "control panel" worksheet. This dedicated sheet serves as a central hub, housing key inputs and echoing important outputs. This allows users to view critical information together on a single screen without excessive scrolling, making the model more user-friendly and less prone to errors during interaction.
Recording the Base Case and Tracking Changes
In the midst of intensive analysis, it's easy to inadvertently overwrite base case input values. To prevent this, it's essential to store a master copy of the base case input values in a safe, separate location, along with the corresponding base case output values for reference.
Furthermore, analytical results are most insightful when compared against a baseline. Therefore, analysts should program a "change-from-base" cell for each performance measure. This involves placing the performance measure's base value as a "benchmark" in a cell (e.g., using Paste Special > Values) and then programming an adjacent cell to calculate the difference between the current performance measure and this benchmark. When inputs are at the base case, this difference should be zero, providing an immediate visual check and making deviations from the baseline clear.
Preliminaries: Accuracy, Protection, and Master Copies
Before any analysis begins, several preliminary steps are critical to ensure model integrity:
Accuracy: The model must be conceptually correct and the implementing computer program (the spreadsheet) should be well-engineered and accurate.
Protection: After programming is complete, protect all formula cells to prevent inadvertent changes.
Master Copy: To safeguard the model from corruption during analysis, create a "master copy." This can be done by making the spreadsheet read-only or storing it in a dedicated location, similar to a source code management system.
These structured principles for Excel financial modeling mistakes are not merely good practice; they are foundational for reducing spreadsheet risk in finance and ensuring the reliability of strategic decisions.
5. Automated Tools for Spreadsheet Auditing and Error Detection: The Digital Detectives
Even with meticulous design and modern Excel features, the sheer complexity of some spreadsheets means that errors can still slip through. This is where automated spreadsheet error finding tools become indispensable.
The Limitations of Manual Audits
Manual auditing of formulas is notoriously time-consuming and does not scale to large sheets. Studies have shown that even careful manual checks by domain experts may miss a majority of errors, leading to a false sense of confidence. This highlights the need for more efficient and effective methods for spreadsheet auditing techniques for complex workbooks.
ExceLint: The Static Analysis Powerhouse
ExceLint is a powerful static analysis tool specifically designed to automatically find formula errors in spreadsheets without user assistance. It represents a significant leap forward in best practices for spreadsheet error detection.
How ExceLint Works: Reference Vectors and Fingerprint Regions ExceLint leverages the inherently rectangular character of spreadsheets and users' tendency to organize data and operations in a rectangular fashion. It identifies formulas that are "surprising disruptions" to these rectangular patterns, as such disruptions are highly likely to be errors.
Reference Vectors: Instead of comparing formulas purely syntactically, ExceLint uses "reference vectors" to compare formulas by their shape and dependence information. These vectors encode the spatial location and data dependence between cells, allowing the tool to measure the "distance" between formulas. Formulas with similar reference behaviors will induce the same set of reference vectors. This allows ExceLint to identify "off-by-one" errors or incorrectly aggregated cells that might look syntactically similar but are functionally different.
Fingerprint Regions: ExceLint then identifies homogeneous, rectangular regions of cells that have identical "fingerprints" (a compressed representation of reference vectors). Errors often manifest as aberrations within these regions.
Entropy-Based Error Model: The tool uses an information-theoretic approach, specifically Shannon entropy, to assess the "simplicity" of a spreadsheet's layout. Formula errors increase entropy by creating irregularities. ExceLint proposes "fixes" that would reduce this entropy, flagging cells where a small change makes the layout significantly simpler as likely errors.
Visualizing Errors: Global View and Guided Audit ExceLint offers intuitive visualizations to help users understand and correct errors:
Global View: This visualization colors regions based on formula reference behavior, allowing users to quickly spot visual irregularities across the entire spreadsheet. Different colors signify distinct sets of formulas, making inconsistencies visible at a glance.
Guided Audit: For detailed investigation, the guided audit provides a cell-by-cell inspection of the highest-ranked suspected errors. It highlights suspicious cells in red and suggests the correct reference behavior (the "fix") by showing what the adjacent, correct cells do, often in green. This clear visual pairing makes complex errors much easier to understand and fix, especially in large spreadsheets that don't fit on screen.
Real-World Success: The Reinhart-Rogoff Error ExceLint's effectiveness was demonstrated by its ability to identify the critical error in the infamous Reinhart-Rogoff austerity spreadsheet. It flagged the formulas that incorrectly excluded five countries from the analysis, an error also found by professional auditors. Even when ExceLint initially flagged the smaller (correct) set of cells as the "error" (due to its default assumption that errors are rare), the visual output immediately made it clear that the larger region was systematically incorrect.
Effectiveness: ExceLint is fast, taking a median of 5 seconds per spreadsheet, and significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art analysis tools with high precision (median 100%) and recall (median 100%) in finding real formula errors.
General Auditing Methodologies: Equivalence Classes
Other auditing tools and methodologies also aim to reduce the complexity of manually checking every cell. These approaches focus on identifying regular structures and irregularities in spreadsheets by grouping similar formulas into "equivalence classes" based on criteria like:
Copy-Equivalence: Formulas are absolutely identical.
Logical-Equivalence: Formulas differ only in constant values and absolute references.
Structural-Equivalence: Formulas consist of the same operators in the same order, but with different arguments. By visualizing these equivalence classes and their geometric distribution, inconsistencies between formula usage and the intended conceptual model can be easily spotted. This helps auditors focus their attention on potentially dangerous areas, reducing the time and cost of manual audits. These tools are critical for uncovering why are spreadsheet errors so common? and addressing their root causes by focusing on the "model domain" rather than just the "value domain".
6. Leveraging Excel's Built-in Statistical Power (with Critical Awareness)
For those engaged in Excel for statistical data analysis reliability, Microsoft Excel offers substantial capabilities beyond basic calculations, particularly through its Analysis ToolPak.
The Analysis ToolPak: A Powerful, Yet Imperfect, Ally
Excel is widely used for statistical data analysis, capable of handling large datasets and performing complex analyses. The Analysis ToolPak, an add-in, enhances Excel's built-in statistical functions by providing 19 tools for various statistical analyses and tests. It's a valuable, free tool that allows for sophisticated analysis without needing specialized statistical software for many common tasks.
Descriptive Statistics, Correlation, and Regression
The ToolPak simplifies common statistical tasks:
Descriptive Statistics: It quickly generates summary statistics like mean, median, mode, standard deviation, variance, skewness, and kurtosis, eliminating the need to type individual functions. It can also create frequency tables and histograms.
Correlation Analysis: Instead of calculating correlation coefficients for only two variables at a time, the ToolPak can generate a correlation matrix for multiple variables, providing an overview of positive or negative relationships (specifically, the Brave-Pearson coefficient for linear dependencies).
Regression Analysis: This frequently used business analysis can be performed quickly, providing summary statistics, ANOVA for model adequacy, and details on individual regression coefficients (including confidence intervals). For example, a regression model can analyze consumer function based on income and consumption, revealing how much consumption changes with each additional unit of income.
Hypothesis Testing, ANOVA, and Chi-Square
The Analysis ToolPak also supports more advanced inferential statistics:
Hypothesis Testing: This includes t-tests to compare means of two groups and z-tests for large samples.
ANOVA (Analysis of Variances): For comparing means of three or more populations, including single-factor, two-way without replication, and two-way with replication ANOVA.
Chi-Square Test: Used to test independence between categorical variables or to check if observed sample results meet expected standards (e.g., in population proportions).
Acknowledging the ToolPak's Limitations
Despite its power, the Analysis ToolPak has notable weaknesses:
Outdated Interface: Its functionality and user interface have remained the same for decades, a "mystery" given Microsoft's focus on data analysis improvements elsewhere in Excel.
Manual Adjustments: Users often need to rearrange data, expand output columns, and reformat charts after running analyses. For instance, the Histogram tool requires manual definition of "Bins" (upper limits of intervals).
Limited Customization and Automation: While Excel continuously adds new charting and statistical functions that are more accurate and user-friendly, the ToolPak itself does not receive these updates. The VBA version of the ToolPak is available for macro development, but without that, it lacks automation features common in newer Excel functions.
Potential for Errors: Manual data entry and formula input can still introduce errors, affecting the accuracy of analyses, and Excel's built-in statistical functions are less comprehensive than specialized software.
These limitations highlight that while Excel, especially with the ToolPak, is a versatile entry point for statistical analysis, it requires careful manual oversight and an understanding of its quirks to ensure reducing spreadsheet risk in finance and other data-intensive fields.
7. Beyond Excel: When to Graduate to Professional Statistical Software
While Excel is excellent for descriptive statistics and its capabilities for inferential statistics are improving, it's crucial to understand its limitations for serious, large-scale analytical work. For mitigating spreadsheet risks in enterprise and performing highly specialized analyses, professional statistical packages often become necessary.
Scalability: Excel may struggle with very large datasets, leading to performance issues and computational limitations.
Advanced Analysis: Its built-in statistical functions and add-ins, while powerful, are limited compared to specialized statistical software like SAS or SPSS. These professional tools offer a wider range of algorithms, better handling of complex models, and more robust error checking for intricate statistical procedures.
Reproducibility: Ensuring the reproducibility of analyses can be challenging in Excel due due to the manual nature of many operations and the potential for "value-domain fixes". Professional software provides structured environments that inherently promote reproducibility and version control.
Auditing and Debugging: While ExceLint significantly improves error detection in Excel, professional statistical software often has more integrated and powerful debugging and auditing capabilities for complex code.
Specialized Applications: For highly specific needs, such as control engineering, signal processing, image processing, or fuzzy control, specialized commercial simulation packages like MATLAB or ANSYS offer comprehensive toolboxes that go beyond Excel's scope.
Recognizing when a problem outgrows Excel's capabilities is a key part of smart spreadsheet risk management. For critical, high-volume, or highly complex statistical analyses, investing in and training with professional statistical software like SAS, SPSS, or R is a wise decision.
8. Conclusion: Regaining Control in the Era of Complex Spreadsheets
The spreadsheet crisis, characterized by pervasive errors and their catastrophic consequences, calls for a fundamental shift in how we approach Excel. The days of treating spreadsheets as informal, "write-and-throw-away" tools are over, especially for those that are strategically important and long-living.
Modern Excel, with its powerful new functional programming capabilities—Dynamic Arrays, LET, and LAMBDA—offers a new paradigm for spreadsheet development. These features enable a more methodical, structured approach that resembles conventional software engineering, allowing for reusable logic, clearer formula intent, and dramatically reduced opportunities for error replication. By leveraging LAMBDA helper functions and array shaping functions, even complex problems, previously requiring VBA or specialized software, can be tackled directly within the Excel environment with greater reliability.
Coupled with these advancements are sophisticated auditing tools like ExceLint, which automatically detect formula errors by analyzing the underlying structure and patterns of spreadsheets. These tools are essential for spreadsheet auditing techniques for complex workbooks, identifying hidden inconsistencies that manual checks often miss, and ultimately helping to restore trust in our data.
For robust financial models, adhering to structured spreadsheet design principles like single input entry, control panels, and rigorous change-from-base tracking is paramount for avoiding Excel financial modeling mistakes. While Excel's Analysis ToolPak offers valuable statistical analysis capabilities, its limitations highlight the need for user diligence and awareness, and a willingness to graduate to professional statistical software when the complexity or scale of the data demands it.
In this new era, preventing catastrophic multi-billion dollar spreadsheet errors in Microsoft Excel is no longer a pipe dream. By embracing modern Excel features, adopting structured design principles, and integrating automated auditing tools, we can move from merely accepting errors as inevitable to proactively ensuring enhancing spreadsheet quality and reliability, ultimately safeguarding critical business decisions and national policies from the silent, insidious threat of the buggy spreadsheet. Don't let your spreadsheets be the next headline; equip yourself with the knowledge and tools to master them.
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